Last 12 months warmest on record
August 28, 2012, 3:04 am
Kevin Weedmark
A mild winter and a warm to hot summer have added up to the warmest 12 months in the eastern Prairies since temperatures started being recorded 122 years ago.
From Aug. 1, 2011 to July 31, 2012, the average temperature was 5.2 degrees celsius, 3.2 degrees warmer than the average of 2 degrees celsius over the last 122 years.
The second warmest 12 months ever recorded was 2005-2006, with an average temperature of 4.6 degrees.
"All of the stations I looked at around Moosomin were all the warmest year on record by a fairly long shot," said Environment Canada senior climatologist David Phillips. "Weyburn had an average temperature of seven degrees over the last 12 months, and that's four degrees warmer than average.
"That's significant-the previous warmest 12-month period was 5.8 degrees, so it literally clobbered the last record, set in 1986-87.
"In Yorkton the average was 5.0 but the previous record in 1986-87 was 2.8 degrees.
"It's remarkable when we break records by a tenth of a degree, but to break them by three or four degrees is unheard of."
He said the record-breaking average temperatures were recorded across the eastern Prairies.
"We've seen this all over the eastern Prairies," he said. "I don't know how far west it extends-I haven't checked for Maple Creek or Medicine Hat-but if you go east into northern Ontario, to Kenora and Thunder Bay, it's the same story."
Phillips says that what is particularly unusual about the last 12 months on the eastern Prairies is that higher temperatures were recorded at every time of year.
"What's impressive about it is that every month, every season was up there at the top," he said. "Every month was above normal. It was clearly the kind of year we've never seen before.
"It's hard to find consistent weather in Canada. Sometimes in a warm year, seven months are warmer than average, four are cooler, and one is in between. There's no connection between winter and spring-you can have a cold winter and then a balmy spring. But this year every season was warmer than average."
He said the biggest difference between the record temperatures and averages was for the winter months.
"We cancelled winter last year," said Phillips. "We've cancelled a lot of summers in this country but never a winter before.
"If I look at the numbers and crunch them by season, we find that across the prairies it was the second warmest winter on record, and the spring, although there was a lot of cloud and rain, was the fifth warmest spring on record. At the same time, what we saw this winter was the driest winter on record, with very little snow. That combination of missing the look of winter-very little snow, and the feel of winter-the warmth-added up to it seeming like winter passed us by."
The weather conditions over the last few months have contributed to the great year local farmers are having, Phillips points out.
"The spring was the third wettest on record, that's why you're getting these incredible yields," said Phillips. "It was a dry winter, but when you prayed for rain in the spring you got it. That wet weather in the spring has come to be your savior. It's like money in the bank when you can plant early and it will take because you've got the warmth and the rain. It has added millions of dollars to the economy. That warm weather in the spring allowed the farmers to get onto the fields, the warmth came at the right time in July and August, and now it looks like good weather for harvest in the Moosomin area. If farmers could bottle this weather for spring and summer, I'm sure they would.
"We want perfectly warm and dry through the harvest season, and it looks like that's what we'll get in the Moosomin area-27 degrees when it should be 22, and wall to wall sunshine, that great Saskatchewan sun. It's like an atmospheric gift for farmers.
"And since farmers were able to get a good start with lots of moisture in the spring, it gets you away from the f-word-frost-at this time of year. This year we don't even have to think about frost at this point. We're not even going down below double digits at night."
Phillips says older people are right when they say our winters are not what they used to be. "When oldtimers say we don't get the winters we used to get, they're absolutely right-winters have changed a lot. Winters are clearly the most changed.
"Over the last 65 years, when we have the most complete data, if we plotted the data for the southern prairies-and Moosomin is right in the heart of that area-you see a warming trend in every season.
"The world has warmed up in the last 100 years by three-quarters of a degree. You couldn't feel that walking in downtown Moosomin today. But the southern Prairies have warmed up more than most areas.
"The winter period on the prairies has become 3.9 degrees warmer over the last 65 years, and the spring period-March, April, and May-is up 2.5 degrees. The fall-September, October and November-has warmed up 0.9 degrees, and the summer has changed the least. It's warmed up by 0.6 degrees over 65 years."
Despite that warming, there are fewer overly hot days over the summer.
"You used to see more 30-plus days," said Phillips. "You have fewer days above 30 degrees now, but now we're seeing warmer nights."
"Canada wide, we've warmed up one degree, so the Prairies have changed more than most. If one was looking for the biggest change, northern BC and the Yukon have seen the most warming, followed by the southern Prairies and then the northern Prairies."
After the warmest 12 months in the 122 years records have been kept, is Phillips about to predict another warm winter?
"There's a very slim chance that we will have a winter like last winter, but we should have a warmer winter than average. We base our models on ocean temperatures. The air in Moosomin can be quite different tomorrow than today but the oceans don't change as quickly so we put a lot of focus on them. When we have an El Niño event we tend to have a warmer and drier winter. This winter may very well be warmer and drier than usual but it should be a little tougher than last year."
Pool benefits from warmer summer
The warmer summers over the last few years have meant more kids in the water at Moosomin's swimming pool.
"We increase our fees at the pool about three per cent a year, but for the last three years our revenue has gone up about nine per cent every year," said Moosomin Recreation Director Mike Schwean.
"We get those wet Mays and early Junes, but that doesn't really affect us at the pool. We really count on good weather for July and August, which we've had for the last few years, especially August."
Revenue at the pool has increased from $68,000 in 2009 to $78,500 as of Aug. 15 of this year, with a couple of weeks of revenue to come in yet.
The warm weather has a positive impact on the swimming pool, but the mild winter didn't hurt the outdoor rink. "If it was too warm it would be a problem, but it was just a few degrees below zero for a lot of the winter, and that's fine for the outdoor rink," Schwean said.
"We actually got the ice in at the outdoor rink pretty quick last winter, and had between two and three months of ice.
"At the outdoor rink, the bitter cold is worse for it-it makes the ice brittle. A winter like last year is just awesome for it and doesn't really change the indoor rink's power bill that much. If every winter could all be like that, it would be perfect."
Good summer for waterslides
James Mills of the Kenosee Superslides says he has seen good summers and bad, and the last two summers have been great.
"It's been fantastic," he says. "This year and last year are our two best years ever. As long as it's nice out people want to cool off and where better to do that than at the Superslides?"
He said weather makes a huge difference in his business-there are about twice as many people at the slides on a warm sunny day compared to a cooler, cloudy day.
If it's very cool or rainy and attendance is sparse, the waterslide will shut down. In a normal year that happens seven days out of the season, but this year it only happened three times.
The waterslides are open for only two and a half months a year-from mid-June to the end of August-and thousands of people hit the slides each summer. Last year there were about 33,000 people through the gates.
"On an average day we have 300 to 400, but we had 1,300 people through in one day this year, on August 5, the Sunday of the long weekend. That was a record."
Mills said the weather means everything in his business.
"When you've only got two and a half months to work with, you pray for the good weather, and you get sad when it's cloudy."
Warm winter cut Asessippi season short
Roz Pulo of the Asessippi Ski Area says the warm winter last year ended up cutting the ski season short.
"We were able to make enough snow earlier in the season, and our snowmakers did a fabulous job. But the warmer temperatures came a little too early we did have to close two weeks early, which is unprecedented for our business," she said.
"Only once before we have had to close early-A few years ago we had to close just a few days early.
"We have snowmaking equipment, but we can't make snow when it's too warm, and the problem was it wasn't freezing overnight. There was still snow, but it wasn't able to set overnight, and it got mushy.
"Finally it came to a point where we had to close early."
Pulo says there were a lot of excellent skiing days over the winter however. Although there wasn't a lot of natural snow over the course of the winter, temperatures were good for skiing.
"We do like a lot of fresh snow," she said. "A nice snowfall helps us out a lot, and puts people in the mood for skiing.
"Temperature-wise, skiing at minus 10 to minus 15 is absolutely enjoyable, but most people don't mind if its warmer than that."
Asessippi should be open the second week of December, and remain open until right after Manitoba spring break at the end of March.
Pulo says she knows what kind of weather she would like to see for the skiing season.
"We're hoping for a little more snow and slightly cooler temperatures," she said.